Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

 

學hea真不容易,但hea的感覺是蠻好的。全無壓力地生活,相對以往每分每秒都拉得崩崩緊的工作節奏,真是天淵之別。

在不出門的日子,雖然每天仍然是大清早便起床,立即開著電視機,看財經新聞,但心情已很不同了。以往工作的時候,要隨時準備一旦有事件發生,本著自己鼓吹和堅信的「宏觀審慎管理制度」,於早上七時半在傳媒朋友暱稱為「志剛講場」的國金二期大堂前,和媒体公開見面提供分析。現在遇上突發事件則只是私下評估,思考下一步的發展,純粹滿足自己的專業興趣。之後便是和太太一起吃早餐,然後便開車到球會打高球、做運動和閱讀報章。完成這「例行公事」後回到家裏已經是早上11時,才開電腦看電郵開始「工作」。

看來我已經找到退休生活中,hea和工作之間的平衡。各佔一半應該是最理想的。我曾有言在先,不打算到私人机構當全職工作,這個決定是對的。退休當然想hea,但hea太多,腦袋會生銹。幸好,在「報國」及「講學」的工作以外,再找事情去填滿我用於工作的一半生活時間,並沒有任何困難。事實上,困難的反而是選擇和邀請太多,難以取捨。但我已決定,作出選擇的重要考慮,是工作性質能夠給予我机會,保持對金融和相關範圍的專業興趣,為國家、為香港在金融領域中作出貢獻。

事實上,自去年12月接受的中國金融學會執行副會長的崗位,再加上快開始在中大的全球經濟及金融研究所做一些金融學術研究和授課,預計已佔我計劃用於工作的時間七七八八了。所以,我非常抱歉,要婉拒很多盛情和吸引的邀請。在三月底冷河期過後,我只能在餘下不多的時間做一些非執行或顧問的工作,在宏觀或微觀層面都好,也發揮一下在風險管理和管治上的專長,相信這樣也是對社會的一種貢獻,但希望不會影響我將餘下一半生活時間放於hea的計劃吧!

任志剛

 

It is not easy to learn how to “hea”, but the “hea” feeling is certainly a good one. No pressure, no schedule to observe, no responsibility, it is just fantastic. Instead of constantly stretching your life to the limit like a rubber band about to break, you stretch your muscles that have been aching because you have been inactive for too long. What a contrast!

I still get up early in the morning, turn on the TV and watch the news on financial developments overnight, but with an entirely different state of mind. Before retirement I would make an assessment of whether there was a need, in accordance with the macro prudential approach to managing monetary and financial stability that I preached, for me to provide my views and analyses at 7.30 am to the likely congregation of financial reporters at 2 IFC after significant developments have taken place overnight. Now, I do the same mental analysis and, for my own professional satisfaction, quietly predict what is likely to happen next. I then have breakfast with my wife at home, and head off to the Club, either to play a round of golf or to do exercise, or both, and read the newspapers. By the time I finish with this nice routine and return home, it would be around 11 am. It is then that I would turn on the computer, read e-mails and start working.

I think I have got my balance (half-half) and priority right between “hea” and work. The earlier decision not to accept any full time work in the private sector is also right. But I am acutely aware of the possibility that if you “hea” too much your brain could well stop functioning properly. Fortunately, filling up the half time to be devoted to work does not appear to be difficult. The difficulty, instead, has been to handle all the kind offers. I have decided to give priority to work arrangements that enable me to sustain my professional interest in financial and related matters so that I can continue to contribute to the financial developments in China.

Between being the Executive Vice President of the China Society for Finance and Banking and the forthcoming academic work at the Institute of Global Economy and Finance, the majority of the time I intend to spend working after retirement will have been taken up. Regrettably, therefore, I have to turn down many kind and attractive offers. Whatever working time that I have left, I would probably, after the expiry of the sanitization period (end of March), take on some non-executive or consultancy work relating to governance and risk management at both the macro or the micro levels so that I can also apply my skills in these areas productively and for the benefit of society. Hopefully this would not eat into my “hea” time.

Joseph Yam

Read Full Post »

金融研究工作

 

剛在內地就金融研究工作發言。如果您對金融研究有興趣,可參考附上的發言稿。對不起,只有中文,因沒有時間翻譯。

 

任志剛

 

https://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0AT-mnGtEeRqlZGZ2aHRxNndfMTJjNTQ4empnNg&hl=en

Read Full Post »

 

 

幾個對貨幣政策有興趣的朋友要求我解讀一下美聯儲局2月10日在國會的聲明和上週加貼現率的行動。其實,各位如果仔細閱讀2月10曰的聲明,包括裏面的9個附錄,便不難了解美聯儲局的動机。

信貸寬鬆政策,和其地支持金融体系的持殊措施,已令流動資金充斥市場,遠超存款準備金規定所需,剩餘的準備金,超過一万億美元。在這情況下,聯儲局是很難用聯邦基金指標利率作為貨幣政策利率的,因為要在聯邦基金市場上成功維持指標水平,而指標水平是高於零的話,市場上一定要有缺乏資金的狀況,而不是水浸的狀況。簡單說,水浸已令聯邦基金指標利率失去實行貨幣政策的功能,有需要暫時利用其他能有效控制基礎貨幣价格〔即利率水平〕的工具。

美聯儲局的意向,在聲明中可清楚見到,是利用利率走廊〔好像香港以前的「流動資金調節机制」LAF一樣〕,上限是貼現率,下限是聯儲局最近引入的剩餘準備金利率。經上週調整貼現率後,上限是0.75%,下限是0.25%,有50點子的走廊空間。往後如有需要調高利率,我相信聯儲局會將下限和上限一齊調高〔或只調高下限,即剩餘準備金利率〕,而聯邦基金指標利率的角色會暫時被淡化。

這是一個不常見的美國貨幣政策操作模式的結構性轉變,具深遠影響。應繼續留意發展,特別是聯儲局主席本週的發言。

任志剛

 

 

A few friends with a keen interest in monetary policy asked me to provide an interpretation of the Statement of the Fed of 10 February before the US Committee on Financial Services and the subsequent hike in the US Discount Rate. I thought that the messages are quite clear from the Statement, which we all should read carefully, including its 9 footnotes.

Credit easing and other temporary support measures for the financial system have meant that the money market is flooded with liquidity. Excess reserves are now over US$1 trillion. Technically, to hit a positive interest rate target, determined by the Fed Funds Target Rate, there is a need for shortage in the money market. As it is now, the condition in the money market makes the Fed Funds Target Rate unworkable as the policy interest rate and there is a need for an alternative tool.

The intention of the Fed, as articulated quite clearly in the Statement, is to use an interest rate corridor (something similar to the Liquidity Adjustment Facility used in Hong Kong in the past before formalizing the Discount Window), with the Discount Rate as the upper limit and the Interest on Excess Reserves introduced recently as the lower limit. With the hike in the Discount Rate last week, the upper limit of the corridor is 0.75% and the lower limit is 0.25%, giving a corridor of 50 basis points. Later on, if there is a need for higher interest rates, I believe that the Fed will shift the corridor upwards by changing both the upper and lower limits, or just increase the lower limit (the Interest on Excess Reserves), in which case the height of the corridor would narrow. The role of the Fed Fund Target Rate will be correspondingly, and perhaps temporarily, diminished.

This is a structural change in the monetary policy operation model of the Fed, which does not occur very often and may have important implications. This is something to be watched closely from now on (if not already), starting with whatever that Chairman Bernanke has to say this week.

Joseph Yam

Read Full Post »

 

 

明天便踏入虎年了,在此我和太太向大家拜年,祝身体健康、萬事如意、心想事成、財源廣進。

任志剛、葉小慧

 

Kung Hei Fat Choy.  My wife and I wish you all the best in the Year of the Tiger.

Joseph and Miranda Yam

 

Read Full Post »

 

 

這是我在2月9日澳洲儲備銀行五十周年紀念研討會上的演詞。我提出了一些與貨幣政策有關的觀點,供有興趣的讀者參考。

任志剛

 

https://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0AT-mnGtEeRqlZGZ2aHRxNndfMTFjNjg0OWZjZg&hl=en

 

This is the speech I made on 9 February at the 50th Anniversary Symposium of the Reserve Bank of Australia.  It contains some of my viewpoints on monetary policy issues.  This is for reference by those readers with an interest in the subject.

Joseph Yam

 

https://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0AT-mnGtEeRqlZGZ2aHRxNndfMTBjcnhwaHd2NA&hl=en

Read Full Post »

致歉 Apologies

 

有很多朋友通過這個網址向我提出問題或發出演講邀請。我謹此向尚未收到回覆的朋友致歉。真想不到,退休生活仍是那麼忙碌。我會盡快回覆那些朋友的提問或邀請。還望大家明白,我未必每個邀請亦可以接納,因為除了時間的因素外,我總覺得我不應該給香港的貨幣金融政策指指點點,以免影响政策公信力,違反大眾利益。

本周末,我將會前往澳洲,參加澳洲中央銀行的五十周年興祝典禮,並在研討會上發言。回港後,我會將演詞放上網上跟大家分享。

任志剛

 

To all those who have either asked me questions or sent me invitations through this blog, and have not received a reply, my sincere apologies. I did not quite expect retired life can be so hectic. I will try my best to send you answers, but I am not sure they are all helpful ones, as I am afraid I have to turn down many of the kind invitations to speak publicly. Apart from the time constraint I face, there is risk that my comments on matters relating to money and finance may be misunderstood and therefore inadvertently undermine the credibility of current policies in these areas. This would not be in the public interest.

I am heading for Australia this weekend to take part in and speak at a session of the Symposium organized by the Reserve Bank of Australia on the occasion of its 50th anniversary. I will put my speech on this website on my return.

Joseph Yam

Read Full Post »

 

上星期,內地可能用上海作試點嘗試允許個人海外投資的消息令市場產生了一些混亂。湊巧地,在有關消息出現前,一則引述官方消息的公告卻指出,廣受香港關注的「港股直通車計劃」已於上月正式過期。像往常一樣,這些新聞令到會直接受惠於內地政策放寬的港股市場出現了一些波動。

其實,類似的新聞及謠言是無可避免的,正如內地要將資本帳進一步開放一樣。對這方面發展有興趣的人,無論是什麼原因,都應該從這個角度看待有關事情。也許這樣,他們才可以較準確地評估內地在有關金融領域上政策轉變的可能,以及更重要地準確掌握時機。

內地目前正面對龐大的經常帳盈餘,儘管最近因為環球金融海嘯而下降。因為資本帳的限制,當局需要累積外滙儲備,有關數字截至去年底已接近2萬4千億美元。外滙儲備當然是應付金融危机的有效「彈葯」,但亦有可能因為擁有太多「彈葯」,令到內部金融管理、滙率及其他相關的政策範疇出現困難。什麽才是有效和審慎的方法去處理目前錯綜複雜的問題,仍是有爭議的,但開放一些在資本帳中控制着的項目一定是在政策議程之內的。而我相信,當中一個惹人關注的項目就是允許內地居民海外投資。

內地的儲蓄率是全球最高的。然而,因為內地的金融制度現仍處於初步發展階段,從各種風險與回報的組合而言,可以吸引和滿足這些儲蓄的投資渠道委實是有限的。內地居民希望保障自已,以備將來的需要,這一點部分解釋了內地儲蓄率高企的原因。然而,倘若他們可以投資海外,為自己的儲蓄賺取更加穩定,及經風險調整後較高的回報率,他們可能會更加安心地消費,從而令到儲蓄率下降,國家亦可籍此推動在增長模式上需要的結構改變。倘若內地居民可以到海外投資,他們對外幣的需求亦會增加;換言之,將會減低外滙儲備累積的程度,達到藏匯於民的效果。

我並沒有掌握內地在這一方面最新發展的內幕消息。我估計,容許居民在海外投資,應該是內地金融改革議程上的重要項目。事實上,我記得當我仍在金管局的時候,已經就有關建議向內地提出,希望當局作出考慮。當然,在考慮的過程中,一定會涉及多個單位和不同利益,令事情變得複雜化,使宏觀經濟因素的重要性,因而可能相對下降。「港股直通車計劃」便是一個例子。無論是基於甚麼原因(當中可能包括希望幫助香港),容許內地居民經過一個城市、一間銀行進入一個市場,都會令一個金融設計師對這個基本上是推動開放資本項目的安排感到奇怪,並懷疑這個建議背後的真正動機。其他並沒有被指定的城市、銀行及市場當然亦不會喜歡這個建議,儘管被指定為海外投資的市場會歡喜。

我們並不應時常要求和依靠特殊優惠。內地投資者應該可以選擇把自己的資金投資到那一個市場以及那一些金融產品。當然,我們應該在香港繼續為投資者提供符合國際標準程度的保障,配合內地當局密切監察發展,並協助他們管理源自金融改革開放所出現的風險。倘若我們取得生意最大的份額,這是因為我們是國際金融中心,在金融服務方面擁有競爭力。這亦有可能令更多的海外集資者被吸引到香港吸納內地投資者的資金。

任志剛

 

Last week there was some confusion over whether residents on the Mainland will be allowed to invest overseas, starting with a pilot scheme in Shanghai. Interestingly, this was preceded by a pronouncement, claimed to be from official sources, that the through train idea, which attracted much attention particularly in Hong Kong, had been scrapped. As usual, news of this nature caused a bit of volatility in the Hong Kong stock market, the market that stands to benefit most from the relaxation.

Further news or rumours on this subject are inevitable, just as it is inevitable that the Mainland will embark on further liberalization of the capital account. And for those who are interested in developments on this front, from whichever point of view, they should look at the subject from this angle. Perhaps then they would be in a better position to assess the likelihood and more importantly the timing of any policy change.

What the Mainland faces is a large surplus in the current account, although this has been reduced recently by the global financial crisis. With controls in the capital account, the authorities have to accumulate foreign reserves, which stood at around US$2.4 trillion at the end of last year. Foreign reserves are of course good ammunition for dealing with financial crises, but it is possible to have too much of a good thing, presenting difficulties in the management of domestic monetary conditions, the exchange rate and other related policy areas. While it is debatable as to what are the prudent solutions to the combination of problems so presented, the liberalization of the many items in the capital account that are still subject to control must feature in the policy agenda. And one, I would say, attractive item is the relaxation on outward investment by residents.

The savings rate on the Mainland is among the highest in the world. Yet the avenues for the mobilization of such savings are quite limited, in terms of the spectrum of risk-return combinations available, given that the financial system on the Mainland is still in its early stage of development. This partly explains why the savings rate has to be so high, as residents wish to insure themselves against possible needs in the future. If they were allowed to invest overseas and in the process achieve a more stable, risk-adjusted rate of return for their savings, then perhaps they would feel more comfortable about spending more money, thus bringing down the savings rate and the country would achieve the much needed structural change in its growth model. If residents are allowed to invest overseas, there would also be greater demand for foreign currency from them; in other words the outflow in the capital account that compensates for the current account surplus would shift from the official sector into the household sector, which would reduce the extent of foreign reserve accumulation.

I do not have inside information on the latest developments in this subject. My view is that this should be an important item on the agenda for financial reform on the Mainland. Indeed, I recall raising it for consideration in my HKMA days. Now, it is quite possible that the discussion of this important item, which I am sure involves quite a number of parties, many with different interests, would touch upon considerations other than the all important macroeconomic ones, to the extent of clouding the objective of the matter. Take the through train proposal for example. For whatever reasons (probably including the desire to help Hong Kong), outward investment by residents was intended to be organized through one city, by one bank and into one market. A financial architect could not help feeling strange about the proposed arrangement and wondering what the real purpose of the proposal was. Cities, banks and markets other than the destined one would not like it. The market to which outward investments are directed would love it.

But we really do not need such a special treatment. Mainland investors should be allowed to choose where to invest their money and what to invest in. We should of course continue to provide investors with a measure of protection that meets international standards, and cooperate with the Mainland authorities in closely monitoring developments and assisting them in the management of the risks arising from financial liberalization. If we get the lion’s share of the business, it is because as an international financial centre we are competitive in our financial services. It is also possible that more fund raisers from overseas would be attracted to Hong Kong to tap this money from Mainland investors.

Joseph Yam

Read Full Post »

« Newer Posts - Older Posts »